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17 June 2011

S&P 500 Earnings Back to Credit Bubble Highs

Two years after making the observation that terrible earnings news was the time to buy (see first chart), it looks as if the billions of taxpayer dollars (via future earnings) have gotten corporate earnings back to credit bubble highs (see second chart). From May 18, 2009: An Index Fund Investor’s Dream: S&P 500 Earnings Nearing [...]

11 February 2011

Post Financial Crisis Retracements: Buy & Hold Investors Making Their Money Back

In 2007, the financial crisis and impending stock market crash was nothing but a bearish prognostication. To the chagrin of many, once the stock market was in total free fall, the Feds stepped in with tons upon tons of money to prop up the market, sell billions of dollars in USTs on a weekly basis, [...]

2 February 2011

The Q Ratio: Quantifying Reversal to the Historical Stock Market Mean

Being a total chartology geek and lover of anything that tracks the historical record of stock market performance (e.g. supercycles), it’s hard to resist posting these graphics discussing the Q Ratio. Briefly… The average (arithmetic mean) Q ratio is about 0.71. In the chart below I’ve adjusted the Q Ratio to an arithmetic mean of [...]

7 January 2011

Could the Stock Market Rally Really Be ‘This Simple’?

Could this be the real time, forward looking indicator that everyone (but traders) is looking for? [click to enlarge] The irony, of course, is everyone talks about having a “strong U.S. Dollar“, but based on U.S. exports data and an fairly good history of an inverse relationship with the S&P 500 index of late, that [...]

17 December 2010

Chartology: 1987 Crash Trading Channel Back in Play

Chartology like this should make well seasoned, fully invested finance types shiver… and long term buy on the dips investors drool with anticipation. [click image to enlarge] Image Source & Credit Chris Kimble 1987 highs having an impact on the S&P 500 today?

21 November 2010

Looking Back at My ‘An Index Fund Investor’s Dream’ Call

Spurred on by a recent Chart of the Day email, here’s a look back at my 18 month old observation of why it pays to buy on the dips when the news is at it’s worst. From May 18, 2009: An Index Fund Investor’s Dream: S&P 500 Earnings Nearing Historical Lows Image Source: Chart of [...]

17 November 2010

How Obama’s Flip Flop on Bush Tax Cuts Screwed Fixed Income Investors

Like it or not, political policy, and the uncertainty it creates, is a major influence in the financial markets. Case in point: the massive sell off in municipal bond funds and ETFs, in what is usually a historical snooze fest, over the last two weeks when President Obama caved to political pressure by extending the [...]

1 November 2010

Chartology: The Halloween Indicator vs. Sell in May and Go Away

Remember that thing known as the “Sell in May and Go Gway” effect? It has a flip side, known as the the Halloween Effect, where the majority of all S&P 500 gains have been made between November and April. Image Source: Chart of the Day I also refer to the Halloween Effect as the “cold [...]

22 September 2010

5 New Ideas for Controversial ETFs That Will Never Exist

I often jest that the financial world is moving towards a world of total ETF-ification. Meaning, that with the huge popularity of Exchange Traded Funds in today’s financial markets, that market makers are only limited by their imagination, and their creative accounting skills, at what assets, commodities or random grouping of equities they can throw [...]

23 August 2010

20 Funny ETF Ticker Symbols That Will Never Exist

 ETFs,Humor,Index Funds         7 comments

Now that the investing world is moving towards a world of total ETFification, I think it’s time we begin giving these fee generating, cash cows catchy ticker symbols that we can actually remember. The easiest way, in my opinion, is to associate each sector or macro investing goal with commonly known pop culture references. Obviously, [...]

7 July 2010

My Favorite Pro-Gold Chart: the S&P 500 to Gold Ratio

I’ve said for a while now that due to gold becoming the world’s latest sure thing investment, it has become a very crowded momentum trade. However, this chart from Zero Hedge (guest post by Brandon Ferro, Managing Member of Hevea Partners) is one of the few pro-gold arguments, aside from almost certain devaluation of fiat [...]

4 May 2010

Vanguard Now Offering Free Trades on In-House ETFs

Not to be outdone by low cost ETF competitors like Charles Schwab, Vanguard customers now have the option to trade Vanguard ETFs commission free, as well as benefit from online discount broker like commissions on individual stock trades. Commission-free ETF transactions. Vanguard brokerage clients may make commission-free transactions in Vanguard’s entire line-up of 46 low-cost [...]

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