I’m a subscriber to the thesis that one can gauge how a population is thinking, and what they may or may not do, by using Google Trends or Google Insights for Search. The premise being that, if you can peer into what people are searching for, you can get an idea of what’s hot and what’s not, what may or may not happen, etc.
In some respects, you could even argue that knowing what everyone is searching for online might give you an edge as an investor.
So let’s take a look at a few economic keywords and phrases we’re punching into Almighty Google. Shall we?
And we’re not talking about the double dip from Dairy Queen here. We’re talking double dip recession and a double dip in the stock market. Of course, one could argue this is a classic dead cat bounce, or possibly, that a double dip argument is a waste of time because we never really came out of the recession at all.
Looks like I’m not the only one growing increasingly concerned about deflation, and perhaps, hoping for sector specific deflation in drastically inflated sectors of our economy.
According to real estate pros I’ve seen and read, today’s real estate game is about refinancing. That’s where much of the banking and real estate transaction fees will be generated over the next few months.
Fearing deflation, Keynesian endpoints and sovereign debt restructuring, many investors are flocking to U.S. Government Treasury Bonds.
Not surprisingly, on the down slope of a real estate bubble, fewer people are hitting the Internet ether searching for real estate investments or a sweet oceanfront investment property. Banks tightening lending standards and everyone fearing losing their job have a way of spooking people, and even popping the bubble that was touted as unpoppable.
Scary to admit, primarily since much of western based capitalism is based on taking on and repaying debt collateralized by real estate, but the social stigma of foreclosure appears to be ending. Moreover, looks as if strategically defaulting on your mortgage is here to say.
I really hate the phrase “new normal”, but with every main stream media outlet jumping on every new hip phrase the blogosphere throws at them, what do you expect.
Knowing what everyone is buying and selling, or about to buy or sell, is a juicy piece of information indeed.
Perhaps tops on the investor wish list is knowing ahead of time is investor/trader money flow. By identifying where the most research is being directed, perhaps Google Trends could give us some indicator of where the momentum is building or where we can snake a few buy on the dips bargains after the speculative money has left the sector.
Last but not least, what better confidence and pessimism keyword spells success or disaster to a consumer based, import economy than unemployment. All roads to recovery leads to jobs, and until the unemployment situation is solved, be prepared to sit U.S. economy to stay grounded until it does.
While none of this is groundbreaking stuff — pessimism begets more pessimism — it’s interesting from a societal monitoring point of view just how quickly we hit the Internet ether to go searching for the very information that might make our pessimism worse by doing all we can to prevent it from happening or counteracting it.
(Insert obligatory self-fulfilling prophecy argument here.)