Why I Have a Love-Hate Relationship with Earnings Season

Filed in Buy on the Dips , Investing 101 3 comments

Sometimes I love earnings season and then sometimes I hate it! If you’re wondering why… see Google’s 30 point nose dive in the after hours market today.

[click image to enlarge chart]

For disclosure purposes, I should say that I did not own Google prior to their earnings announcement but I think their after hours belly flop presents a great learning opportunity.

  1. Illuminates the dangers of holding individual stocks. If you lumped all your eggs into the GOOG basket earlier this week, then congrats, you just lost 5% of your investment in less than 5 minutes. If you’re not up for this sort of risk, then you might want to consider index funds or ETFs that own a collection of stocks to dilute your risk.
  2. You should always know when your stocks are reporting earnings. If you own individual stocks, you should know when they report earnings well in advance. If you have a Google Calendar account (which you likely will if you use Gmail), simply go to Google Finance, have your stock’s “Events calendar” imported into Google Calendar, and they will update one another automatically with no work on your part. Use automation to your advantage and you won’t get caught napping.
  3. Be patient and pick your battles. Instead of chasing the market for opportunities, let the market give you buy on the dips opportunities. Let the buyers and the short sellers battle it out everyday while you sit on the sidelines. Once you see a clear winner, join the team that’s winning. I’d rather be a live mercenary than a dead hero any day!

Remember, earnings season comes four times a year, so if you take a hit like this, try to learn from your mistakes or reduce your risk profiles as you deem necessary.

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Posted by Matt SF   @   21 January 2010 3 comments
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3 Comments

Comments
Jan 21, 2010
8:19 pm

Not a Goog holder either but if you are inclined this might be a great time. In the conference call Schmidt stated they were staying in China… still more growth potential. Additionally if they can fix their phone issues and customer support there is a whole new and large market opportunity for them… hmmmm

[Reply]

Matt SF Reply:

Yeah I suppose if you want to take the risk it would be a good time. Market looking awfully top heavy right now so it could go either way.

[Reply]

Jan 31, 2010
9:37 am

I like your post on earnings. I’ve been tracking Netflix over the years and have seen first hand how (almost ever quarter) skeptics short NFLX considerably thinking they missed earnings and then NFLX comes out and beats them. There is a huge rally/short squeeze causing the speculators to lose bunch of money and instant 10-20 gains next trading day.

I am a longterm holder of NFLX (i.e. I consistently buy before earning season and sell after).

[Reply]

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